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The global agricultural sector is facing one of its greatest challenges yet. As food demand continues to rise, arable land is expanding at an increasingly slow pace.
This imbalance highlights the urgent need to rely more heavily on technology and innovation to secure global food systems and ensure a sustainable livelihood for farmers.
Shrinking farmland, rising dependence on technology
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, global grain production is expected to grow just 0.9% per year, while harvested land expands only 0.14% annually—a rate that is less than half the 0.33% seen in the previous decade.
This means that without technological support, production will likely fall short of meeting global food demands.
How will grains be used by 2034?
By 2034, the global distribution of grain usage is projected as follows:
- 40% for direct human consumption
- 33% for animal feed
- The remainder will be used for biofuel production and industrial purposes
Key drivers of biofuel demand include Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
Increased production, but also higher emissions
While global agricultural and fishery production is set to grow by 14% by 2034 and meat, dairy, and egg production will rise by 17%, livestock numbers will grow by 7%.
These gains come with a cost: agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by 6% over the next decade.
Falling prices, rising risks for small-scale farmers
Despite increased output, real agricultural prices are expected to decline, putting small-scale farmers—who often lack access to capital and modern technology—at greater risk.
Without targeted government support, these farmers may struggle to stay afloat.
Precision agriculture: The key to sustainable solutions
The report offers a clear path forward: investment in agricultural technology could help eradicate global malnutrition and cut agricultural emissions by 7%.
Achieving this requires a 15% improvement in agricultural productivity through:
- Precision agriculture
- Improved animal feed
- Efficient water and nutrient management
- Low-cost, scalable practices like crop rotation and intercropping
Farmer well-being index rises, but gaps remain
Data from Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) shows that the Farmer Well-being Index in 2024 stands at 81.39, a slight improvement from the previous year. The Southern region scored the highest, followed by the North, Central, and Northeast.
However, key areas still require urgent attention:
- Education: Rated as “Needs Immediate Improvement”
- Environment: Rated as “Needs Improvement”
- Health & Social Welfare: Rated “Very Good”
- Economy: Rated “Moderate”, but improving
Policy recommendations
To improve farmers’ quality of life, the report suggests:
- Expanding education and tech training, especially for older farmers
- Promoting environmentally friendly farming practices
- Enhancing financial literacy and farm management skills
- Rolling out locally tailored support programs
Summary: Farmers must not be left behind
As the world becomes more reliant on agriculture, it is crucial to ensure that smallholder farmers are not left behind. Without a shift toward technology-driven innovation and targeted support, they risk becoming the most vulnerable players in the global food system.
A forward-thinking “solution plan” that combines investment in innovation with efforts to improve farmer well-being is essential—not just for feeding the world, but for sustaining the lives of those who grow our food.