Brazil is currently the third-largest chicken meat producer in the world, behind the United States and China, per official USDA data. Post forecasts chicken production will continue to make steady gains, growing two percent in 2022 to reach 14.85 million metric tons.
Post revised up its forecast production because of stronger than initially anticipated external demand.
> The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has been compiling monthly slaughter data since 1997.
Data for 2022 is not available yet, though Post anticipates that Brazil will continue to top records set during the last year.
- The fourth quarter of 2021 registered the highest slaughter rate since the beginning of the series, at 3.69 million metric tons produced, a 3.1 percent increase when compared to the same period of 2020.
- Overall, each quarter of 2021 saw a slaughter rate of over 3.6 million metric tons and represented an increase as compared to the same quarter in 2020.
Post anticipates that in 2022, Brazil will set a historical production record as demonstrated by the graph below.
Figure 1. Brazilian chicken meat production, 1997-2022 Projection
Price and Profitability Outlook
Post forecasts that poultry prices will increase for the remainder of 2022. The forecast is based trend registered in the first quarter of 2022 that saw a sharp reversal from the end of 2021.
- In the first quarter of 2022, the average price for chilled chicken was R$ 6.45 (USD 1.23) per kilogram and R$ 6.37 (USD 1,22) per kilogram for frozen chicken.
- Post anticipates that 2022 prices may surpass the records set in 2021.
- In 2021, the average price for chilled chicken was R$ 7.19 (USD 1.34) per kilogram and a record R$ 8.60 (USD 1.60) per kilogram in mid-September.
For 2022, Post anticipates that domestic food prices in Brazil will climb across the board on the account of military action in the Black Sea region, which has disrupted the
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