Report Highlights:
In 2021, the Mexican poultry sector saw improvements which are carrying into 2022. The re-opened hotel, restaurant, and institution (HRI) sector, a key driver of the Mexican economy, continues its rebound phase from 2020 pandemic lockdowns. Domestic poultry producers have remained profitable and are benefiting from increased demand from domestic consumers and international visitors. Imports remain crucial to fully satisfy demand. As input costs remain high for producers, however, costs are passed to consumers and are partially reflected in rising food inflation.
Production
The 2022 chicken production forecast remains 3.9 million MT, maintaining a positive growth outlook. Production is expected to steadily rise, despite high input costs (feed, utilities, fuel, transport, etc.) as producers strive to fulfill national retail and foodservice demand.
Producers have largely passed higher input costs to consumers, partially reflected in a 7.7–percent food inflation, per National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) data. The incidence of vertical integration for Mexican chicken producers continues growing, affording them increased capacity to weather rising input costs while also increasing production.
Consumption
The 2022 chicken consumption forecast is raised to 4.85 million MT on recovery of the HRI sector and continued household demand for a healthy, affordable source of animal protein. Chicken is often at the center of the plate, accounting for almost 60 percent of meat consumption, as it lends well to versatility in Mexican cuisine.
–> Despite expected increasing food prices in 2022, chicken will continue to offer high value per peso, especially to middle- and lower-income sectors. While chicken consumption will rise, the composition of those products and how purchases are made may adjust as a result of tightening food budgets.
How consumers respond to rising chicken meat prices will differ according to their income level:
- Higher-income consumers have access to more creative and innovative ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat products, which comprise a growing market sector.
- Middle-income consumers are expected to become more price sensitive. While they will continue to
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