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Thailand’s processed chicken industry could see stronger growth in China over the next decade. Despite Beijing’s push for food self-sufficiency, poultry imports are projected to expand steadily.
Nanthaphong Jiralerdpong, Director of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said China’s agricultural outlook presents both opportunities and risks for Thai exporters through 2035.
Poultry imports remain a growth segment
The China Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 forecasts rising self‑reliance in grains and some meats. Yet poultry imports are expected to grow, creating openings for Thailand’s processed chicken and value‑added products.
China is projected to import 1.27 million tons of poultry meat in 2035, with average annual growth of 2.4% between 2026 and 2035.
Processed chicken as a competitive edge
TPSO views this trend as a positive signal for Thai exporters, particularly those capable of supplying high-quality processed chicken products that meet stringent food safety and production standards.
Thailand’s strengths in production and processing allow exporters to compete on quality, food safety, traceability, and innovation rather than volume alone.
Chinese consumers are shifting toward diverse, convenient, and premium food products. Rising incomes—projected at 4.3% in urban areas and 6.5% in rural areas—and urbanization—expected to reach 75% by 2035—will further drive demand for processed and healthier options.
These structural changes are likely to drive demand for premium food, processed products, and healthier food options, creating opportunities for Thai food exporters to move further up the value chain.
China’s domestic production rising, but imports persist
China’s agricultural production capacity continued to expand. Total grain output hit 715 million tons in 2025, while meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time. At the same time, the country significantly reduced imports of several major agricultural commodities. Corn imports fell by 80.6%, while wheat imports declined by 64.4%.
Nevertheless, demand for certain products remains strong enough to support continued imports. Poultry is among the segments expected to maintain growth. For Thai exporters, this segment offers a rare growth opportunity amid China’s broader push for self‑sufficiency.
Moving up the value chain
TPSO recommends shifting from commodity exports to branded, higher‑value chicken products. Ready‑to‑eat meals, convenient processed items, and premium offerings can meet evolving consumer expectations.
Exporters should highlight strengths in food safety, quality control, and product innovation. Studying provincial consumer behavior will also be key, as preferences vary widely across China.
Risks in other agricultural products
Not all commodities share poultry’s outlook. Rice imports are projected to decline by 9.1% annually, while sugar imports may fall to 4 million tons by 2035 as domestic production rises.
TPSO advises exporters to monitor China’s food security policies closely and diversify markets to reduce reliance on a single destination
Competing on quality, not volume
TPSO expects China’s market to shift from high‑volume imports to high‑quality, diversified demand. For Thailand, processed chicken stands out as a promising growth area, but success will depend on quality, branding, and innovation.
For Thai poultry exporters, the message is clear: China will remain a major market, but the next phase of growth will be driven by quality, innovation, and value-added processed chicken products, rather than volume alone.
TPSO stresses that exporters must adapt to China’s evolving consumer landscape while diversifying into other destinations to balance risk.