Egg prices have been on a steady rise over the past two years, and the trend shows no signs of slowing down. This time, the culprits are a combination of avian flu and the holiday season, both of which are putting significant pressure on the egg market.
Impact of Avian Flu
The avian flu, a highly contagious viral disease affecting birds, has been particularly devastating. Since January 2022, the virus has killed approximately 108 million birds, with 75 million of those being egg-laying hens. This has resulted in a substantial reduction in the egg supply, impacting about 8% of the nationwide supply. The situation worsened last month when avian flu cases spiked again, leading to the death of 2.8 million egg-laying birds in key egg-producing states like Oregon, Utah, and Washington.
Holiday season demand
As the holiday season approaches, the demand for eggs naturally increases. Eggs are a staple in many holiday recipes, from baking cookies to preparing festive meals. This surge in demand, coupled with the reduced supply, has caused egg prices to soar. In October, egg prices at grocery stores were up 30.4% compared to the previous year. The average cost of a dozen large white eggs on the New York wholesale market was $4.23 as of mid-November, a significant increase from $2.43 a year earlier.
Retailers’ response
Retailers are also feeling the pinch. Some supermarkets are trying to absorb the price increases to avoid losing customers. For instance, Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of a family-run grocery chain, mentioned that they are keeping prices lower to prevent reaching a “breaking point” with customers. However, this is a delicate balance, as retailers must still cover their costs.
Future outlook
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has revised down the egg supply forecast for the first quarter of 2025, indicating that high prices may persist into the new year. This ongoing situation highlights the vulnerability of the egg market to both disease outbreaks and seasonal demand fluctuations.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the combination of avian flu and the holiday season has created a perfect storm for egg prices. With the holiday season in full swing and the avian flu continuing to impact egg supplies, consumers and retailers alike are bracing for higher prices. The situation underscores the need for better disease management and supply chain resilience to mitigate such price shocks in the future.
Sources: Available upon request.