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World poultry meat production for 2024 is estimated to be 103.3 million tons, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). In its first projections for global chicken meat production in 2024, the USDA estimates an increase of more than double the 2023 forecast (less than 0.5%) but still just 1% of global chicken meat production in 2024. We observe a similar trend in large producers such as Brazil, which would reach 15.05 million tons.
Stability in global chicken meat production is subject to significant local adjustments. Low production in the United States has been largely offset by increases in production in the European Union and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, two other major poultry producers, Brazil, and China, have kept their production forecasts unchanged, which contributes to maintaining the balance in world supply.
According to a USDA survey, China will record a 3% drop in production in 2024. This would come after a stable year 2023 in production. The fall would be due to the avian flu that would reduce both the local census and that of countries that usually export genetic material to China as they would be affected by this disease. As a result, Brazil is further consolidating its position as the world’s second largest poultry meat producer, as the Brazilian difference of just over 1% with respect to chinese production is likely to increase next year to 8.5%.
World chicken meat exports for 2024 show a 1% downward adjustment compared to the October 2023 forecast, standing at 13.9 million tons. This adjustment is mainly due to reductions in shipments from Brazil and the United States, which fail to be offset by smaller gains from other leading exporters.
Brazil is the world’s leading exporter of chicken meat and will be affected due to a decline in demand from important markets such as:
– Japan
– South Korea
– Saudi Arabia
Despite the downward revision in Brazil’s exports, volumes are expected to reach a record level, consolidating its position as a key player in the global poultry meat trade.
U.S. exports will also decline due to lower demand from Cuba and Angola, factors derived from the macroeconomic problems of these nations. This highlights the vulnerability of U.S. poultry exports to external economic factors.
To conclude, compensatory adjustments among major producers and exporters will determine overall stability in global poultry meat production by 2024. Furthermore, global poultry meat consumption will remain very strong, and it is expected that the top 3 producers, China, Brazil, and USA will continue to be key players in the international market, despite country-specific challenges.
Sources: Available upon request.