Rabobank released the poultry quarterly Q1 2023 outlook. In the report, most of the markets have positive perspectives. In addition, the release describes that demand for poultry products will keep strong, and the supply is limited, but the context is changing.
The market could be affected by an economic downturn, being the inflation increase a critical factor in putting pressure on consumer spending capacity. This means a strengthening demand for poultry products such as chicken and eggs could be expected, together with cheaper cuts.
However, demand for conventional chicken products is strengthened in markets with more expensive, slower-growing, and organic options available.
It is expected the global market keeps strong in 2023 despite the increase in the rising number of countries at risk of oversupply. Therefore, global poultry demand is foreseen to benefit from trading down.
However, in many countries, demand growth will be restricted by tight supply, leading to ongoing high prices. Although chicken is the best positioned protein in terms of affordability, it raises the question of what price consumers are prepared to pay.
This could lead to demand destruction, especially among low-income consumers. This is happening globally but especially in emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
In addition to these market changes, producers will face key challenges on the operational side, namely:
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feed and energy prices,
labor cost and availability,
avian influenza (AI), and
trade.
Although feed prices will be slightly lower than in 2H 2022, feed and other input costs, such as energy, DOC, and labor, are all expected to stay high. Further, in
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