Thailand’s food exports face sharp contraction

Structural pressures and regional impacts

The National Food Institute noted the contraction reflects declining global consumer confidence driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. Intensifying price competition has limited producers’ ability to pass on higher costs.

Trading partners have increasingly adopted import restrictions and food self-sufficiency policies. Indonesia, for example, has suspended rice, corn, and sugar imports due to sufficient domestic stockpiles, reducing purchases from Thailand.

A stronger baht has made Thai products less competitive, while falling prices for fruits, vegetables, coconut, and durian have further pressured export revenues.

Border tensions with Cambodia have cut exports to that country by about USD 145 million, or roughly 5% of total food export value.

Major markets including CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam), Asean, the US, the Middle East, and Japan contracted. On the other hand, South Asia, the EU, CIS countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), and China showed growth.

2025 performance and global position

In 2025, Thai food exports totaled USD 43.5 billion, down 8.1%. The decline reflected weaker purchasing power, a strong baht, and geopolitical tensions.

Thailand ranked as the 15th largest food exporter globally, with a 2.14% market share, slightly declining despite global food trade expanding to USD 2.15 trillion (+5.1%).

Future food segment gains traction

The ‘future food’ segment has emerged as a growth driver. Export value rose from USD 2.3 billion in 2020 to USD 3.9 billion in 2025, averaging +11.1% growth annually.

Its share of total food exports increased from 7.4% to 8.9%. However, the sector remains highly concentrated:

• Health & wellness food: 90.3% share, +12.6% average annual growth
• Medical food: 4.8% share, +3.7% growth
• Alternative protein: 3.7% share, -0.7% decline
• Organic food: 1.1% share, -2.5% decline

Despite strong potential, the segment faces structural challenges including high costs, technological limitations, and uneven market acceptance.

Shifting export structure

Over the past 20 years, Thailand has diversified toward regional and emerging markets, which now account for 70% of exports, up from 48%. China and Asean lead this shift.

Dependence on developed markets such as the US, Japan, and the EU has declined to 30%, reflecting risk diversification and benefits from bilateral trade agreements.

2026 outlook: Contraction before recovery

For the first quarter of 2026, exports are projected at USD 8.8 billion, down 11.5%.

The Middle East conflict is expected to disrupt logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting exports to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Middle East and North African (MENA) markets. Products most exposed and facing the highest risks include canned tuna (17.4%), rice (13.3%), processed sweet corn (12.4%), and canned pineapple (11.5%).

Rising energy costs are expected to increase production and logistics expenses across the supply chain.

Full-year forecast downgraded

For 2026, Thai food exports are forecast at USD 40.3 billion, contracting 7.3%. A sharp 17.7% decline is expected in Q2 before gradual recovery later in the year.

Key downside risks include:

• Weak global demand due to high energy prices
• Ongoing Middle East tensions
• Import restrictions and food self-sufficiency policies among trading partners
• Falling agricultural prices
• Uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs
• Thai–Cambodian border disruptions

By market, the steepest contractions are expected in the Middle East (-50.7%), CLMV (-35.2%), Asean (-14.0%), the U.S. (-12.8%), and Africa (-15.2%).

Growth is projected in South Asia (+35%) and the EU (+15.9%), supported by food security concerns.

Despite the downturn, a weaker baht and rising global demand for food security—particularly in conflict-affected regions—could provide upside opportunities later in 2026.