China’s poultry industry is poised for moderate growth in both production and consumption over the next two years, according to recent reports. The USDA’s August 2024 GAIN report highlights several key trends and projections for the sector, driven by economic factors and shifts in consumer preferences.
China’s poultry industry is poised for moderate growth in both production and consumption over the next two years, according to recent reports. The USDA’s August 2024 GAIN report highlights several key trends and projections for the sector, driven by economic factors and shifts in consumer preferences.
Production trends
The production of chicken meat in China is expected to continue its upward trajectory into 2025. This growth is primarily attributed to the increasing demand for white broiler chickens, which are seen as a cost-effective alternative to other animal proteins, particularly pork. The production of yellow broiler chickens, while still significant, is anticipated to remain at levels slightly below those of 2024.
Producers are responding to market signals by ramping up the production of white broiler chickens.This response is partly due to the rising prices of pork, which have made chicken a more attractive option for consumers. As a result, some producers are expanding their capacity, either by building new facilities or optimizing existing operations to increase output.
Consumption patterns
Consumer demand for chicken is expected to grow in 2025, driven by changes in dietary habits and economic pressures. With higher pork prices forecasted for 2025, many consumers are likely to shift from pork to chicken to meet their protein needs. This trend is expected to bolster the overall consumption of chicken meat in the country.
The affordability of chicken compared to pork is a significant factor in this shift. As economic challenges persist, consumers are looking for more budget-friendly protein sources, and chicken fits this requirement well. This shift in consumer behavior is expected to sustain the moderate growth in chicken consumption through 2025.
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Import and export dynamics
China’s poultry imports are projected to decline in 2025, primarily due to increased domestic production and ongoing sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions on imports from major supplier countries. Despite these restrictions, there remains a strong demand for specific poultry products, such as large-sized chicken feet from the United States.
The reduction in imports is also influenced by the competitive pricing of domestically produced chicken. As local production ramps up, it is expected to meet a larger share of the domestic demand, reducing the need for imports. This trend underscores the growing self-sufficiency of China’s poultry industry.
Market outlook
Overall, the outlook for China’s poultry industry in 2024-2025 is positive, with steady growth in both production and consumption. The industry’s ability to adapt to market demands and economic conditions will be crucial in sustaining this growth. Producers are likely to continue focusing on white broiler chickens, given their cost advantages and consumer preference shifts.
As the industry evolves, it will be essential to monitor how changes in global trade policies and domestic economic conditions impact production and consumption patterns. The continued emphasis on meeting sanitary standards and optimizing production processes will play a vital role in the industry’s future success.
In conclusion, China’s poultry sector is set for a period of moderate growth, driven by economic factors and changing consumer preferences. The industry’s adaptability and focus on cost-effective production will be key to navigating the challenges and opportunities in the coming years.
