South Africa’s poultry industry is cautiously expanding its production through mid-2026, but persistent logistical bottlenecks—high transportation costs, port congestion, and import restrictions—continue to put pressure on margins and supply chains. Despite these challenges, the sector remains resilient, with moderate growth in production and exports1.
Production Recovery Amid Constraints
South Africa’s poultry sector is expected to produce 1.68 million tonnes of chicken in 2026, a 2% increase compared to the previous year. This recovery is supported by improved feed availability and stable domestic demand, which is projected to reach 1.92 million tonnes, reinforcing poultry’s role as the most affordable protein source for households. However, affordability remains tight, with elevated logistics costs and disease‑related disruptions in other protein sectors keeping price pressure high2.
Imports Under Pressure
Imports are forecast to decline by 5% to 308,000 tonnes in 2026, largely due to tariffs, anti‑dumping duties, and closures linked to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Freight costs remain elevated, driven by global rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and congestion at South African ports. Exchange‑rate volatility further amplifies landed‑cost increases, making imports less competitive. The industry continues to rely heavily on mechanically deboned meat (MDM), which dominates import volumes and is essential for processed meat production.
Export Opportunities and Limitations
Exports are projected to grow by 5% to 65,000 tonnes in 2026, driven mainly by cooked chicken products. The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) remains the core market, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is the leading destination outside Africa. Despite these gains, exports remain too small to significantly influence domestic pricing. Expansion into the Middle East and Europe is hindered by fragmented provincial structures, slow certification processes, and limited veterinary capacity. Exporters emphasize the need for stronger government‑to‑government engagement to unlock inspections for markets such as the UK, EU, and Saudi Arabia2.
