Thai govt engages stakeholders to boost credibility in corn production data

Scientific methods back maize production estimates

At the meeting, the OAE presented its methodology for producing corn yield forecasts, emphasizing its foundation in statistical science and international standards.

Techniques include on-the-ground yield sampling (crop cutting) combined with satellite imagery to forecast production at the provincial, regional, and national levels. The data is adjusted using weighted averages and reviewed by multi-tiered committees to ensure accuracy and consistency.

A key issue addressed was Thailand’s relatively low average corn yield of 757 kg per rai (approximately 4.7 tons per hectare), which is below the ASEAN average of 851 kg per rai and the global average of 954 kg per rai.

The OAE explained that this is primarily due to land limitations—over 86% of corn-growing areas are located in zones deemed suboptimal or unsuitable for cultivation. While test plots using high-performing varieties can yield 1,500 to 2,000 kg per rai, such results are not reflective of real-world conditions.

Lawmakers seek clarity on data usage

Narongdet Ularankul, Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and Cooperatives, welcomed the transparency provided by the OAE.

He noted that the committee had received concerns about the basis of the production figures—whether they were based on actual surveys or predictive models—since this data serves as a cornerstone for national agricultural policy.

He commended the OAE for opening the floor to scrutiny and stakeholder input, stating that such collaboration strengthens policy foundations and ensures fairness across the agricultural supply chain.

Academic endorsement for data modeling approach

Thanaporn Athipanyakul, Associate Professor at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Economics voiced support for the OAE’s methodology.

She emphasized that the use of historical data in forecasting models is not outdated, but rather essential for building robust, accurate predictions. This is the same approach used by crop insurance companies worldwide to assess risk and volatility.

Commitment to inclusive, evidence-based policy

Participants offered additional suggestions, particularly regarding import controls and data validation. The OAE pledged to consider all feedback and to enhance future data collection efforts, including inviting stakeholders to join field surveys for firsthand observation and mutual understanding.

“The voices and feedback from all sectors are invaluable. We are committed to conducting our work transparently, impartially, and grounded in science,” Mr Chantanon said in closing.

“We will continue to embrace modern technologies to strengthen our forecasting capacity and ensure Thai agriculture remains resilient in a rapidly changing global landscape.”