17 Dec 2025

China moves to sharply cut soybean imports

Goldman Sachs says China could reduce soybean import reliance below 30% within a decade as food-security measures accelerate.

Jess Ramanee

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China is working to reduce its reliance on imported soybeans, with Goldman Sachs projecting a drop from 90% today to below 30% within a decade.

This shift reflects Beijing’s broader strategy to strengthen food security, shield supply chains from geopolitical risks, trade volatility, and stabilize domestic agriculture.

Analysts led by Trina Chen noted that China lowered annual soybean consumption by 15 million tons between 2021 and 2024 through aggressive demand-management measures.

These measures began during the first US-China trade war and include reducing soybean content in animal feed, improving feed-conversion efficiency, and optimizing protein mixes for livestock.

Goldman Sachs emphasized that such steps have been “paramount in mitigating barriers and uncertainties” in China’s soybean trade with the US and South America.

Soybeans remain central to China’s food-security equation because they provide edible oil, serve as a critical feed ingredient, and represent one of the country’s most strategic imports.

Domestic demand powering economic strategy

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Beijing recently reiterated commitments to expand domestic demand and build a robust internal market to insulate the economy from external shocks.

These pledges followed a high-level annual policy meeting that outlined China’s economic priorities for 2026, with food security once again taking center stage.

China imports more than 100 million tons of soybeans annually, accounting for about 60% of global trade and making it the largest buyer for US farmers.

However, recent commitments between Washington and Beijing may shape short-term import levels. The White House announced that China agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this year.

The agreement also includes 25 million tons annually for the next three years as part of a trade truce.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer clarified that the 12-million-ton commitment extends through the end of the growing season, pushing the deadline into February or March. He confirmed over the weekend that China is currently “in compliance” with its purchase obligations.

Closing China’s long-term land gap

Soybeans represent China’s largest single-commodity dependency by volume, complicated by climate risks and limited arable land for a population of 1.4 billion.

Goldman Sachs said China has made “remarkable progress” in slowing a 30-year trend of rising import dependence. In 2022, analysts estimated that China faced a 90-million-hectare arable-land shortfall by 2032. Updated figures suggest the gap has narrowed to 84 million hectares, potentially shrinking to 5 million hectares by 2035 through better crop management and farming practices.

As Beijing continues to scale domestic production and reduce feed demand, China appears poised to reshape global soybean trade flows and redefine its own food-security landscape.

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