The Philippine poultry sector continues to drive steady demand for feed (yellow) corn, helping offset reduced consumption from the swine sector.
Meanwhile, improved weather and better farming practices are contributing to modest gains in corn production to support this shift.
In its latest GAIN report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila projects an increase in local corn production to 8.2 million tons in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 and further to 8.3 million tons in MY 2025/26.
This growth is attributed to better weather starting Q1 2025. Famers are also more knowledgeable about managing and controlling fall armyworm (FAW) infestations and have adopted FAW-resistant corn varieties. This has improved crop resilience, boosting productivity and expanding harvested areas by 2%, from 2.5 to 2.55 million ha in MY 2025/26.
Preference for yellow corn
Industry contacts tell FAS that farmers continue to choose yellow corn over white corn. Yellow corn sells better, especially for feed. This preference supports growing demand from the poultry, layer, pet food, and aquaculture sectors. Such gains help offset lower feed use in the swine sector, which is still grappling with the lingering impact of African swine fever.
Corn consumption is forecast to rise to 10 million tons in MY 2025/26, up from 9.9 million tons in MY 2024/25. Feed use and residuals are expected to reach 5.55 million tons in MY 2024/25, while food, seed, and industrial demand, including corn-based snacks, is estimated to grow to 4.25 million tons.
Stocks and imports reflect demand shifts
Corn import volumes remain steady, with 1.63 million forecast for MY 2024/25 and a slight increase to 1.75 million tons in MY 2025/26, driven by continued demand for animal feeds.
Notably, corn stockholding patterns reflect this rising demand. Ending stock are projected to rebound to 283,000 tons in MY 2025/26, up 21.5% year-on-year due to stronger institutional purchasing from feedmillers and food manufacturers.
In contrast, ending stocks in MY 2024/25 are expected to fall to 233,000 tons, largely due to production lagging behind consumption needs. As of May 2025, commercial entities held 84% of corn stocks, underscoring the vital role of institutional buyers in buffering supply.
Overall, steady growth in the poultry and related industries continues to support demand for feed corn, helping to balance changes within the broader sector.
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