Spotlighting soy’s strategic role in global protein and trade

As cities expand and incomes rise, protein consumption surges until it levels off, while vegetable oil demand keeps climbing. This makes soy uniquely valuable as both feed protein and an oil source.

USSEC MENASA Executive Director Kevin Roepke discusses current rends protein consumption and what to watch out for.

Mr Roepke also pointed to national strategies such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which aims to expand domestic poultry production and reduce reliance on imports. Rising energy costs, driven by artificial intelligence and data center demand, present new challenges for poultry and feed production in warmer climates.

He stressed that technology must move beyond hype.

 “The market right now is looking for actual applicability, practical applications that they could use to increase their productivity.”

Reliable supply and diversification beyond China

USSEC CEO Jim Sutter emphasized the reliability of U.S. soybean supply. Production has held steady at around 120 million tons, with farmers focusing on yield improvements and sustainability. More land is being reforested than converted to crops, underscoring environmental responsibility.

USSEC CEO Jim Sutter shares his perspective on U.S. soy.

Nearly 60% of the U.S. crop enters international markets. While China remains the largest destination, diversification is critical. Forecasts project global soybean imports rising from 176 to 229 million tons over the next decade, with soymeal imports expected to grow by 11%.

Meat consumption trends reinforce soy demand. Poultry is projected to grow by 21% globally over the next decade, followed by beef, pork, and sheep meat. Africa’s demographic trajectory will drive future demand, with the continent expected to account for more than half of global population growth by 2034–35.

“Global demand for protein and vegetable oils is at an all‑time high and still growing,” Mr Sutter noted.

MENASA’s appetite for U.S. Soy

The MENASA region is emerging as a strong growth market. Pakistan reopened imports of U.S. soybeans after a two‑year pause, bringing in 844,000 tons to date. Bangladesh’s soy value chain committed to purchasing USD 1.25 billion worth of U.S. soy over the next 12 months, 2.5 times more than ever before.

Egypt ranked as the third largest importer of whole U.S. soybeans in marketing year 2024–2025, while Morocco ranked ninth globally for soybean meal imports.

CrushCon 2025 delegates from various parts of the MENASA region listen to presentations.

F.M. Sabir of Sabroso (Pakistan), Kevin Roepke, Jim Sutter

Gregory Komnik (Russia), Dr Kauser Malik of of Forman Christian College (Pakistan), Shahzad Jahdoon of Alltech Pakistan, Ricky Thaper of the Poultry Federation of India

Boussad Lami of USSEC Algeria, Larbi Lami of Cevital (Switzerland), Riadh Karma of USSEC Tunisia

Gaurav Mittal of Godrej Agrovet (India), Naveen Kumar P of Nanda Group (India), Sumit K Agarwal of Bio Nutrients (India), Sunil Kataria of Godrej Agrovet (India)

Njimi Abdallah of NAVOC (Morocco), Ismaili Alaoui Hassane of Lesieur Cristal (Morocco)

USSEC highlighted the defining ‘4Ds’ of U.S. soy:

• Drier soybeans
• Higher digestibility
• Lower damage
• Zero deforestation compared to other origins

USSEC’s Will McNair and Tom D’Alfonso present the 4D’s of U.S. soy.

US soybean farmers also presented sustainable practices under the Sustainable U.S. Soy Assurance Protocol, which verifies responsible production with reduced environmental impact.

While MENASA markets are expanding rapidly, the trajectory of China’s soybean demand remains critical to the region’s outlook.

Darin Friedrichs, Director of Sitonia Consulting, pointed out that China’s growing protein output drives record feed demand and imports, shaping global trade flows and influencing MENASA’s feed costs and food security.

China’s market paradox

Mr Friedrichs explained that China’s protein output has grown steadily despite demographic decline. Poultry has led the expansion, with production rising 52% in the past decade. Younger consumers increasingly view chicken as healthy, affordable, and digestible, supporting soybean meal demand.

Darin Friedrichs discusses the current status in China’s soybean market.

Swine sector headwinds remain. Pig prices have fallen sharply, prompting Beijing to order the 25 largest companies to cut output by 10% in 2026. Consolidation favors large firms that monitor feed efficiency, creating incentives to use higher‑quality soybean meal.

Feed production continues to climb. September 2025 set a record of more than 30 million tons. Poultry feed rose from 60 million tons in 2018 to nearly 100 million tons in 2024.

China’s self‑sufficiency efforts have limited impact. Domestic soybean production reached 21 million tons in 2025, supported by subsidies of USD 737/hectare. Yet yields remain 40% below U.S. levels, and crushers prefer imported beans. State media admitted domestic soybeans have lower oil yields, higher costs, and lack competitiveness.

Imports continue to set records, with Brazil dominant and U.S. volumes steady at 17-18%. A recent trade truce commits China to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Purchases are handled by COFCO, a Chinese state-owned food processing holding company, bypassing tariff complications.

“China’s protein production continues to grow, even though its population is already starting to shrink… soybean imports continue to rise as protein production increases,” Mr Friedrichs stressed.

Soy’s enduring role in food security

CrushCon 2025, held in Dubai from December 3-4, 2025, underscored soy’s central role in global protein and trade. For MENASA, the event reinforced its position as a strategic growth hub where poultry expansion, feed demand, and sustainability commitments align with U.S. Soy’s reliable supply.

For China, the paradox of shrinking demographics yet rising protein consumption highlights the enduring importance of imports.

Together, MENASA and China illustrate how soy remains essential to food security and economic stability worldwide.