Thailand’s chicken industry braces for slower growth in 2026

Thailand’s chicken industry includes 1278 registered operators, with 80% classified as small-scale producers. Yet, these farmers contribute only around 10% of total chicken output.

Large, vertically integrated companies dominate production, controlling nearly 90% of production. These players invest across the entire supply chain either through company-owned farms or contract farming arrangements.

Competition remains fierce. Investments in feed, farming, processing, and distribution drive innovation, while product quality and new launches are critical to securing market share.

Global headwinds to slow export growth

Chicken exports are forecast to reach USD 4.67 billion in 2026, representing 3% growth, down from an estimated 5% increase in 2025. Both processed chicken and chilled/frozen chicken exports are expected to see slower expansion amid weaker economic conditions in major trading partners.

Processed chicken: Price pressures mount

Processed chicken, which accounts for around 70% total chicken export value, is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2026, slowing from 5.0% growth in 2025. Demand from key markets such as Japan and the UK is weakening.

Japan continues to restrict Brazilian imports due to avian influenza, benefiting Thailand. However, China’s lower-priced exports pose a significant challenge, with average prices 14% below Thailand’s in 2025.

In the UK, rising consumer demand is offset by growing domestic production. UK chicken output is expected to expand by 2-3% in 2026. This may constrain growth in imports from Thailand.

Chilled and frozen chicken

Chilled and frozen chicken exports, representing around 30% of total chicken export value, is forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025.

China remains a growth market, but rising domestic production and competition from Brazil, the US, and Russia threaten Thailand’s position. Russia’s share of China’s imports rose to 19% in the first nine months of 2025, up from 13% a year earlier.

The United Arab Emirates, though a smaller market accounting for only 2-3% of Thai chicken exports, continues to expand. Demand for halal chicken drove a threefold year-on-year increase in Thai exports during the first ten months of 2025.

Currency and cost pressures

Thailand ’s exports face added strain from currency appreciation. By late November 2025, the baht had strengthened 5.8% against the US dollar, eroding price competitiveness.

Heavy reliance on imported feed ingredients, particularly soybean meal and corn, further raises production costs. This results in higher production costs and weaker price competitiveness compared with key rivals. As global demand slows, exporters may need to cut prices or accept thinner margins.

Global competition and strategic shifts

Thailand’s  strengths in food safety and advanced processing remain valuable. Yet, rivals such as Brazil, China, and the US benefit from lower feed costs and economies of scale.

Thai companies are expanding overseas production bases to remain competitive. This strategy, however, has contributed to slower export growth, with the industry’s CAGR falling from 9.0% during 2016-2019 to 6.5% during 2020-2024.

Key risks facing the industry

• Volatile costs: Feed costs account for 60-70% of total production costs and remain vulnerable to climate-related supply risks. Other inputs—such as broiler genetics, farm management, and utilities—continue to rise. These pressures could reduce profit margins from the current 20-30% range.

• Trade and regulatory barriers: Uncertainty from renewed global trade tensions, alongside stricter non-tariff measures, could dampen demand. Stricter non-tariff measures and ESG requirements in markets such as the EU and Japan demand higher traceability and compliance investments. 

Despite these challenges, Thailand’s planned import of US feed corn in 2026 may ease cost pressures, though the impact will depend on feed formulation and usage levels.